Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for August 1

CFTC logoHOUSTON – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released data for the disaggregated commitments of traders (DCOT) and Legacy “COT” reports for the week ending August 1, 2014.  Our recap of the net positioning for large reporting futures traders is below, compared to the prior week’s data. 

Source: CFTC for COT data, Cash Market for gold and silver prices.  The positioning and price data is as of the close of trade in New York on Tuesday, July 29, 2014.

20140801 dcot RECAP

In the DCOT table above a net short position shows as a negative figure in red. A net long position shows in black. In the Change column, a negative number indicates either an increase to an existing net short position or a reduction of a net long position. A black figure in the Change column indicates an increase to an existing long position or a reduction of an existing net short position. The way to think of it is that black figures in the Change column are traders getting “longer” and red figures are traders getting less long or shorter.

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COT Data Watch for Silver Futures

Arensberg Gene CaptainHOUSTON – Later today, Friday, August 01, at 15:30 EDT, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will release its commitments of traders report (COT) for positioning as of Tuesday, July 29.  Recall that gold had sold down a little then, to just under $1300. 

We believe the key COT charts to watch are the ones below, which reflect July 22 positioning of the Swap Dealers and Managed Money traders in silver futures.   We may revisit this post again once the data has been released and we have time to digest it – for a comparison update. 

Going into this new report, we want to know if the Managed Money traders once again held their ground, heavily net long.  We also want to know if the overly short Swap Dealers have begun reducing their enormous short positions in silver futures, or not. 

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Latest HRA Editorial: Disappointing Politicians

Coffin Eric podium 2013Latest HRA Editorial: Disappointing Politicians From the July 21st, 2014 HRA Journal: Issue 217

We’re half way through the dog days of summer and metals and juniors haven’t collapsed yet.  So far so good.   I don’t expect them to but this time of year the markets can generate big swings on even fairly minor news.    Metals in general continue to perform well and gold is fighting its way back from a $60 smack down. As you know, I’ve never been one for conspiracy theories but even I was shocked at the scale and timing of the sells in the futures market that drove the bullion price down last week.     I think its more important to focus on the fact large scale selling didn’t panic the market this time.  If we have already seen the pullback we’re going to off the latest geopolitical spike then the market is well positioned to move higher.  Many will disagree with me on that point.  That’s good too.  I’m not seeing overwhelming bullishness which would be a negative sign at this stage. Slow and steady is exactly what we want until we get past Labour Day...Click here to read the full editorial.

A Quote from Stocks & Speculations Regarding HRA:

"One thing I would like to point out is that the Editorial section on the HRA Journal is four pages long this month; the full Journal is 15 pages. It was issued on July 21, with a feature article and compelling buy recommendation at $0.14 for Constantine Metals (CEM-tsxv). On Friday, July 25, CEM closed at $0.21 - a 50% gain in 3-days.

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Precipitate Completes Due Diligence and Elects to Proceed with Acquisition of Concessions in the Dominican Republic

Precipitate LogoVANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, Jul 31, 2014 (Marketwired via COMTEX) -- Precipitate Gold Corp. (the "Company" or "Precipitate") (tsx venture:PRG) is pleased to announce that, with respect to the agreement announced July 2, 2014, it has completed its due diligence review of the Richard and David concession applications and notified Gexplo S.R.L. and Santo Mining Corp. (together the "Vendor") of its decision to proceed with the agreement to acquire a 100% interest in both the "Richard" and "David" concession applications in the Dominican Republic.                                        

Upon execution of the agreement, Precipitate was granted a 30 day due diligence period during which it reviewed all available technical and legal data related to the concessions. Having completed a satisfactory review of the available information, Precipitate has notified the Vendor of its election to proceed with the terms of the agreement.  

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Greenspan - Correction Looms for U.S. Equities

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan sees headwinds and a coming correction for the U.S. economy given signals he sees in the recent data. 

“The stock market has recovered so sharply for so long you have to assume somewhere along the line we are going to get a significant correction.  Where that is I do not know,” Dr. Greenspan warned in the Bloomberg video interview below.   Best viewed on page 2.

Source:  Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/greenspan-stocks-to-eventually-see-correction-zaGdo0XYS2mVfyfntonjxQ.html

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Argentina enters default for second time in 13 years after talks with US creditors break down

 

Claudia Torrens writes for the AP.  NEW YORK (AP) — The collapse of talks with U.S. creditors sent Argentina into its second debt default in 13 years and raised questions about what comes next for financial markets and the South American nation's staggering economy.

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Bud Conrad - Why the Fed’s Taper Hasn’t Hurt the Stock Market… Yet

Conrad BudBud Conrad, Chief Economist for Casey Research writes in this must-read essay:   

Today (Wednesday, July 30) at 2 p.m. Eastern time, the Fed will issue a statement on monetary policy. I don’t expect it to contain any surprises. The Fed will continue to taper by reducing its quantitative easing (QE) purchases by another $10 billion/month, bringing total purchases to just $25 billion per month.

Further, I think the Fed will stick to its plan to end QE purchases altogether by October:

Please continue reading next page...

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Jim Grant - Fed Policy May Be Fueling a Credit Bubble

Whenever Jim Grant is talking we try to find the time to listen.  The Bloomberg set up for the brief video interview below reads:  James Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, talks about Federal Reserve policy and its potential impact on financial markets.     Grant, speaking with Tom Keene, Adam Johnson and Olivia Sterns on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance," also discusses investing in Russia.  Video below, about 8 minutes. 

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Friday, August 01, 2014

Wyoming Super Cell Developing

Nothing to do with gold or silver. Just a cool video. A Supercell Storm Cloud Forming over Wyoming Video Credit: Basehunters BasehuntersChasing) Music: Empire (Shakira)

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Argentina accuses US of judicial malpractice for triggering needless default

Country (Argentina) threatens to take US to The Hague after defaulting on its debts for the second time in 12 years Arentina has threatened to take the US to the International Court of Justice for judicial malpractice, accusing the country of gross incompetence for allowing two small hedge funds to push the Argentine state into default, regardless of the mayhem caused for other creditors and the damage to ordinary people.

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Market Mood Change Evident

The montage below reminds us of the Risk Off days from not that long ago - where the flight for liquidity helps only the USD and all else is sell fodder. See if you agree.

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Thursday, July 31, 2014

How an American hedge fund forced Argentina into default

Matthew Yglesiaswrites for Vox. Argentina is famous for its defaults on sovereign debt, so the news that it defaulted on bond payments again this week is likely to be greeted by most people with a shrug and an Evita reference. But this time around the default was different, prompted much less by irresponsible economic policy in Buenos Aires than by irresponsible legal policy in Manhattan. An American hedge fund got greedy, advanced a legal theory that was

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Latest HRA Editorial: Disappointing Politicians

Latest HRA Editorial: Disappointing Politicians From the July 21st, 2014 HRA Journal: Issue 217 We’re half way through the dog days of summer and metals and juniors haven’t collapsed yet. So far so good. I don’t expect them to but this time of year the markets can generate big swings on even fairly minor news. Metals in general continue to perform well and gold is fighting its way back from a $60 smack down. As you know,

Continue reading "Latest HRA Editorial: Disappointing Politicians " »

Argentina Declared in Default by S&P as Talks Fail

A man walks by a sign that reads Yesterday Braden or Peron, today Griesa or Cristina, in reference to an unresolved debt dispute between the Argentine administration of President Cristina Fernandez and the NML Capital hedge fund, ordered to round-the-clock negotiations by a U.S. District Court presided by Judge Thomas Griesa, in Buenos Aires on July 29, 2014.

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Global QE ends as China opens second front in bond tapering

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes: Chinas central bank, and others, have become major players on world equity markets, effectively fuelling stock bubbles in much the same way they previously fuelled credit bubbles

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GoldQuest Releases Drill Results and Exploration Update at Tireo Project in the San Juan District, Dominican Republic

VANCOUVER, BC--(Marketwired - July 31, 2014) - GoldQuest Mining Corp. (TSX VENTURE: GQC)(M1W.F)(M1W.BE) (GoldQuest or the Company) is pleased to announce an exploration update including assay results from four holes from its ongoing drill program which commenced May 2014 on its 100% owned San Juan concession group in the Dominican Republic, which includes the Romero gold/copper deposit (see press release dated October 29, 2013). Drilling is underway at a porphyry target at La Guama North, and the

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Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Japan June output falls at fastest pace since March 2011 quake

* Manufacturers expect output to rise in July, Aug * Govt cuts view on output, says it has weakened * Decline in shipments similar to last recession * Analysts say weak exports may weigh on output ahead (Adds details on shipments, inventories, recession risk) *June output falls 3.3 pct vs fcast -1.2

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Silver on Pace for $100 the Ounce

GE Christenson, aka the Diviant Investor, looks at longer term megaphone technical patterns for silver and concludes that one of them could result in three-digit silver in the not-too-distant-future. Followthe hyperlinks below for the full story.

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Frank Holmes - Remarkable Value in the Miners

The Cambridge House set up for the brief video below reads: Frank Holmes, CEO Chief Investment Officer of US Global Investors, chats with Cambridge House Live anchor Vanessa Collette at the Sprott Natural Resources Symposium 2014 in Vancouver. They discuss a myriad of pertinent market events, including the remarkable value of junior miners oil stocks. Video below, about 9 minutes.

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How Argentina’s Default May Trigger $29 Billion in Claims

President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s government says it needs to delay the ruling until January, after the expiration of a Rights Upon Future Offers clause that’s supposed to keep it from voluntarily giving better terms to the holdout creditors. By defaulting tomorrow,Argentinamay trigger bondholder claims of as much as $29 billion -- equal to all its foreign-currency reserves.

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JPMorgan Says Don’t Fight PBOC as Stimulus Lifts Stocks

Don’t fight the People’s Bank of China. That’s the advice to investors fromAdrian Mowat, the Hong Kong-based chief Asia and emerging-market strategist atJPMorgan Chase Co. (JPM)who raised his rating on Chinese stocks to neutral from underweight in a report dated yesterday. He said shares will rally through October after theHang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI)entered abull marketon July 28.

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Tuesday, July 29, 2014

SRCs we are following and have accumulated

Small resource companies we have accumulated orare accumulating, as the case may be. Those who have beenfollowing Constantine will know they are in the middle of an important drill campaign at Palmer in Alaska. We understand that the company will host a site tour for a number of analysts and newsletter writers in about two weeks. There has been steady accumulation in anticipation of the high grade drill results, the first two holes of which were reported

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Bianco - Sanctions on Russia a 'Non Event'

The Bloomberg set up for the brief video interview below reads: July 30 (Bloomberg) –- Bianco Research President and Founder Jim Bianco discusses U.S. markets, how the Russia sanctions will impact the market and what he’s watching this week with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” Video below, about 5 minutes. (Source: Bloomberg)

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SEMAFO: Initial Siou Infill Drilling Results In Line with Expectations Zone 9 Returns Values Up to 8.38 (10.49 uncut) g/t Au over 17.5 meters

Montreal, Quebec, July 29, 2014, 08:30 EDT – SEMAFO (TSX, OMX: SMF) today announced results from an initial Siou infill core drilling program between 180 and 225 meters vertical depth, which has the objective of replacing and increasing the reserves base at Siou by year-end. Initial results to date have yielded very strong results that confirm the continuity of the zone widths and grades. Some drill results exceeded our expectations such as hole WDC787 (8.38 g/t Au

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Pretivm Closes US$60 Million Primary and Secondary Common Share Offering

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - July 29, 2014) - Pretium Resources Inc. (TSX:PVG)(NYSE:PVG) (Pretivm or the Company) is pleased to announce the closing of its previously announced marketed offering (the Offering) of 8,280,000 common shares at a price of US$7.25 per share (the Offering Price). Pursuant to the terms of the Offering, Pretivm received gross proceeds of US$49,524,750 for the sale of 6,831,000 common shares. The remaining 1,449,000 common shares were sold by Silver Standard Resources Inc. (Silver

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Ron Paul - Stocks are in a Bubble and will Crash

The CNBC set up for the brief video below reads: Ron Paul, the former U.S. representative from Texas and perhaps Americas most popular libertarian voice, has long said that the nations monetary and fiscal policies would result in massive inflation. According to the common measures of inflation, this has not yet occurred. But Paul maintains that the inflation he has warned of has indeed come to fruition in asset prices, and that once it unravels, a market

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GoldCore - Russia Buys 18.6 Tonnes Of Gold In June - Currency Wars Intensify

Mark OByrne of GoldCore writes: Today’s AM fix was USD 1,307.50, EUR 972.84 and GBP 770.39 per ounce. Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,305.00, EUR 971.20 and GBP 768.55 per ounce. Gold climbed $2.30 or 0.18% yesterday to $1,305.10/oz and silver rose $0.12 or 0.58% to $20.62/oz.

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Monday, July 28, 2014

Japan’s Retail Sales Drop in Challenge to Abe Reflation: Economy

Japan’s retail sales fell more than forecast in June, capping a weak quarter that challenges Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s bid to reflate the economy while heaping a heavier tax burden on consumers.

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Precipitate Commences First-Phase Drill Program at the Ginger Ridge Zone in the Dominican Republic

Vancouver, B.C. - July 28, 2014 - Precipitate Gold Corp. (the Company or Precipitate) (TSXV: PRG) is pleased to announce the commencement of a first-phase drill program at the Ginger Ridge gold zone within the Companys 100% owned Juan de Herrera project in the Tireo Gold Camp in the Dominican Republic. The drill and crews have been mobilized to site and the Companys maiden drill program at Ginger Ridge is now underway. The program will total approximately

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Sunday, July 27, 2014

COMEX Swap Dealers Hedging a Massive Long Play on Silver?

HOUSTON – We have just two stops to make on today’s rabbit trail, but both of them “count” and both are pretty dang important. Today we will be looking at what some are calling a “too-high, too fast” net long position in silver by Managed Money traders and then we will cover an aspect of the huge, record high short position in silver futures held by the mercenary Swap Dealers, and it’s a “keeper.” So, with no

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My thoughts On Pat Buchanan’s Brilliant And Incisive Take On Washington’s Ukrainian Fiasco

David Stockman brings us Pat Buchanan with timely commentary on the Ukraine, Russia and the U.S. Pat asks brilliantly, who is the real problem here? David begins: In just 800 words Pat Buchanan exposesthe sheerjuvenile delinquency embodied in Washington’s currentUkrainian fiasco. He accomplishes this byreminding us of the sober restraint that governed the actions of American Presidents from FDRtoEisenhower, Reagan andBush I with respect to Eastern Europe duringfar more perilous times. In a word, as much as

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Saturday, July 26, 2014

US evacuates embassy in Libya amid clashes

Matthew Lee reports for the AP. WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States shut down its embassy in Libya on Saturday and evacuated its diplomats to neighboring Tunisia under U.S. military escort amid a significant deterioration in security in Tripoli as fighting intensified between rival militias, the State Department said.

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Friday, July 25, 2014

C’mon Alan! Bubbles Are Caused By Central Bankers, Not “Human Nature”

David Stockman writes: Alan Greenspan just cannot give up the ghost. During his baleful 18-year reign, the Fed was turned into a serial bubble machine—and therebybecame aclear and present danger to honest free market capitalism and anenemy of the 99% who do not benefit from the Wall Street casino and thevast inflation of financial assets which it has enabled. His legacy is a toxically financialized economy that hasextracted huge windfallrents from main street, and left it burdened

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Greenspan says bubbles can’t be stopped without ‘crunch’

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has always been a student of the economy. Since the financial crisis, he’s become a student of human nature. Sitting in his office with a view of the Washington Monument in the distance, Greenspan is eager to share the insight distilled in his recent book, “The Map and the Territory,” due out in paperback this fall. ‘There is definite evidence the economy is picking up. The financial system

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Russia threatens to hit British companies in 'retaliation' for sanctions

Russia has issued a threat to seize the assets of British companies including BP and Shell as a retaliation against David Cameron’s demand for tough sanctions. In a mounting war of words, a senior diplomatic source claimed Moscow would “fight back” against any industry-wide EU sanctions by putting British companies working in Russian oil on the frontline. “We want friendly relations. We will go along as far as we can. Then we will retaliate,” the figure said.

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Gold Lockdown Until GoldCore - Options Expiry Monday - New Singapore Gold Contract Threatens Manipulation

Mark OByrne, GoldCore.com writes: Today’s AM fix was USD 1,292.50, EUR 961.18 and GBP 761.64 per ounce. Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,300.00, EUR 964.68 and GBP 763.76 per ounce.

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Thursday, July 24, 2014

Ukrainian PM, Cabinet Resign

DONETSK, Ukraine (CNN) -The United States said Thursday it has proof that Russia is firing into Ukraine. ... Also Thursday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and his Cabinet announced their resignation in what Ukrainian political experts said was an expected development. Yatsenyuk and his Cabinet will remain in place as an acting government until elections in October.

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Ukraine’s prime minister resigns as coalition falls apart

Ukraine’s prime minister resigns as coalition falls apart... (Reuters and AP Confirm). Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said Thursday that in light of recent turmoil in parliament, he is resigning his post. He scolded politicians for failing to increase army financing. (Reuters) More...

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The Original
Vulture Speculator

Trading gold, silver and mining shares since 1980 with a focus on taking advantage of volatility extremes, Gene Arensberg analyses the markets through a basket of technical and fundamental indicators and shares his findings from time to time here at Got Gold Report. Mr. Arensberg has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones MarketWatch, USA Today and dozens of other news organizations.

"I've been a huge fan of Gene and his amazing work for years..."

Brien Lundin, CEO, Jefferson Financial, Host of the annual New Orleans Investment Conference and Publisher of Gold Newsletter


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