By Request - TLR Road Kill Bargain Chart
By request we share the "Road Kill Bargain" chart for Timberline Resources (TLR) we first shared at the New Orleans Investment Conference in October of 2011 just below (updated through today, Tuesday, May 15). In this buyer's strike/panic selldown for mining shares TLR has reached the same broad zone it did in the 2008 panic.
We also update readers on our own scheduling just ahead.
In the past four years TLR has only turned in one monthly close below its low today, Tuesday, May 15 ($0.27) - in February of 2009, although the soon-to-be-low-cost gold producer traded to lower prices intra-month in 5 different months from November 2008 to April 2009.
For those who may not remember we began adding TLR in the fall of 2008 in the $0.50s and were, at times then, the only bidder for shares in the $0.20 range in February of 'ought-nine.'
TLR rewarded our faith then as the chart shows clearly. Although the recovery took the better part of nine months, as we recall it did not seem like a long period of time then - time being relative to all parties, of course.
The chart below summarizes the 2008 event, which we think can be used as a loose model for today's action. Emphasis on the word "loose."
Once the irrational, low volume panic selloff ran its course and established Overwhelming Support (OS), TLR advanced to about 800% above its panic lows, more or less. So when we say we were rewarded then, that will give an idea of what the opportunity was then – even though the contemporary mood was morose and defeatist in the extreme. Sound familiar?
Timberline is one of the issues we had in mind when we recently sold a small amount of our physical gold (in the $1640s) in order to take advantage of the panic sales underway today. Full disclosure, we added to our stake in TLR in today's panicky action and intend to add more in future down-spikes. Call us crazy Vultures, but that's what we do sometimes.
Our view is that we are in another 2008-style panicky period, with the causes of that panic ultimately being supportive for gold, silver and the companies that mine them. While in the panic portion of the event (now) we are served up generous portions of resource company Road Kill as fearful sellers hit the weakened bid no matter the price. It rarely gets better than this from a bargain hunting point of view. That's if one believes the world is not about to end and the market will return to a more normal state in the near future.
We do not belive the world is about to end, by the way, and we certainly do hope we are right about that one. We are scheduled to spend a week fishing in two different events just ahead and wouldn't want to miss that!
Everyone can and should make up their own mind about such things of course.
Timberline is awaiting permits from the state of Montana to begin mining at its underground high-grade Butte Highlands project 15 miles south of Butte. The company is also in the process of exploring at its flagship Lookout Mountain project near Eureka, Nevada.
Additional information about the company here: http://www.timberline-resources.com/
Some previous coverage: http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2010/06/add-timberline-resources-to-the-radar-screen-pronto.html
Scheduling: In the past we used to take most of the month of May off for an anual hiatus. Although we won't be taking the entire month away, we will be quite scarce from time to time from now to just after Memorial Day. We plan to place some super-stinky stink bids and "hit the trail" soon, so hold down the fort. The markets will still be here when we return.
Disclosure: Timberline Resources is a Vulture Bargain Candidate of Interest (VBCI) and is our fully fledged Vulture Bargain #4. Members of the GGR team are actively accumulating shares of TLR and continue to hold a speculative long position in the company. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Later today or tomorrow: The Vulture Bargain Road Kill chart for Riverstone Resources.