Friday, April 19, 2013

Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for April 19

Edit 1:  Adds charts, brief commentary on Managed Money short positions in gold and silver. 

Edit 2: Corrects Managed Money positioning for April 9 in gold (table) and -3,000 lot in Change column.  (Thanks W.T.).   Gold short position graph is correct.

HOUSTON -- This week’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disaggregated commitments of traders (DCOT) report was released at 15:30 ET Friday. Our recap of the changes in weekly positioning by the disaggregated trader classes, as compiled by the CFTC, is just below.

20130419 DCOTa


(DCOT Table for April 19, for data as of the close on Tuesday, April 16.   Source CFTC for COT data, Cash Market for gold and silver.)   (More...)

See Edit1 below. 

In the DCOT table above a net short position shows as a negative figure in red. A net long position shows in black. In the Change column, a negative number indicates either an increase to an existing net short position or a reduction of a net long position. A black figure in the Change column indicates an increase to an existing long position or a reduction of an existing net short position. The way to think of it is that black figures in the Change column are traders getting “longer” and red figures are traders getting less long or shorter.

All of the trader’s positions are calculated net of spreading contracts as of the Tuesday disaggregated COT report.

Edit 1.  Managed Money Traders aka The Funds Cover Significant Shorts

Perhaps the most interesting of the 24 individual charts we track in the DCOT is the one below.  To find out why, Vultures (GGR Subscribers) check in this weekend to review our chart changes, commentary and trading update.

20130419 MM short gold

(Data:  CFTC, Cash Market for gold, GGR) 

This, in the context of a brutal week for those long gold.  This week saw the largest ever one-week drop in the price of gold as measured on COT Tuesdays as shown in the chart below. 

20130419 Gold COT Week
(Chart courtesy of Finviz.com)  

Running a very close second for most interesting chart, take a look at the chart below.

20130419 MM short silver

(Hint: Recall that there was little incentive to cover shorts by the COT report cutoff on Tuesday as silver plunged a staggering $4.60 Tues/Tues (-16.4%).  The entire COT week was straight down, especially on Friday and Monday, with no significant bounce until late in the day on COT cutoff Tuesday.  This chart shows the largest drop in Managed Money gross shorts since the DCOT data began in 2006, a plunge of a whopping 8,105 lots or -31% to 17,967 shorts – before there was any meaningful bounce.  Got that?)

For reference, below is a chart showing the silver trading and COT cutoff.

20130419 Silver COT Week

Well, that’s not all and some of what we see is not so encouraging for those on the "long side of town." 

Be sure and log in Sunday afternoon, navigate to the subscriber chart section and catch our proprietary commentary embedded directly in the charts themselves. Until then, have a good weekend and “keep it on the sunny side.”       

Gene Arensberg for Got Gold Report


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The Original
Vulture Speculator

Trading gold, silver and mining shares since 1980 with a focus on taking advantage of volatility extremes, Gene Arensberg analyses the markets through a basket of technical and fundamental indicators and shares his findings from time to time here at Got Gold Report. Mr. Arensberg has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones MarketWatch, USA Today and dozens of other news organizations.

"I've been a huge fan of Gene and his amazing work for years..."

Brien Lundin, CEO, Jefferson Financial, Host of the annual New Orleans Investment Conference and Publisher of Gold Newsletter


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