Friday, June 07, 2013

Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for June 7

Edit 1:  Bulletin.  Adds stunning chart of Bank Participation Report for U.S. Banks in gold futures. Reporting U.S. banks report a net long position this month. 

HOUSTON -- This week’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disaggregated commitments of traders (DCOT) report was released at 15:30 ET Friday. Our recap of the changes in weekly positioning by the disaggregated trader classes, as compiled by the CFTC, is just below.  This week we are also adding in the net positioning of traders the CFTC classes as “Commercial” in the Legacy COT report. 

20130607 DCOT

(DCOT Table for June 7, and Legacy COT commercial positioning for data as of the close on Tuesday, June 4.   Source CFTC for COT data, Cash Market for gold and silver.) (More...)

In the DCOT table above a net short position shows as a negative figure in red. A net long position shows in black. In the Change column, a negative number indicates either an increase to an existing net short position or a reduction of a net long position. A black figure in the Change column indicates an increase to an existing long position or a reduction of an existing net short position. The way to think of it is that black figures in the Change column are traders getting “longer” and red figures are traders getting less long or shorter.

All of the trader’s positions are calculated net of spreading contracts as of the Tuesday disaggregated COT report.

We also focus on the Legacy COT positioning of traders deemed “Commercial” by the CFTC, which includes Producers, Merchants, Processors and Users, plus Swap Dealers in a single category.  The Legacy COT report preceded the Disaggregated COT report and we have tracked and charted it for many years, focusing on the movement and positioning of commercial traders – The “Big Hedgers.”   

Edit 1, to add one interesting chart.  U.S. Banks Report Net Long Gold Position  

In the June 7 CFTC Monthly Bank Participation Report category for U.S. Banks please note an interesting and some might think stunning change.  Recall last month that (less than four) U.S. banks reported being 16,781 contracts net short gold futures.  As of June 4, (still less than four*) U.S. banks reported a NET LONG position of 29,622 contracts. 

So as gold fell from $1452 on May 7 to $1399 on June 4, call it $53 or 3.7%, the U.S. banks flipped from net short to net long by a total difference of 46,403 lots, from 16,781 contracts net short to 29,622 contracts net long.   That is certainly interesting and we just about have to put that on the bullish side of the COT ledger, do we not?   Here is what it looks like in chart form. 

20130607 US Banks Gold
(Source: CFTC for US Banks data, Cash Market for monthly gold, GGR.  Please note:  This graph charts the net short position of U.S. banks in the futures-only report.  A negative number is actually a net long position for the banks.) 

*The CFTC does not say how many U.S. banks are reporting when the number falls below 4.



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Trading gold, silver and mining shares since 1980 with a focus on taking advantage of volatility extremes, Gene Arensberg analyses the markets through a basket of technical and fundamental indicators and shares his findings from time to time here at Got Gold Report. Mr. Arensberg has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones MarketWatch, USA Today and dozens of other news organizations.

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