Got Gold Blog

Wednesday, July 09, 2014

Swap Dealers ‘Goal Line Stand’ for COMEX Silver Futures in Jeopardy, Squeeze Very Possible Now

Update 1: Adds new Kitco price graph for silver at the end showing a possible short squeeze trying to get underway mere hours following the release of this offering. HOUSTON -- A sure-enough short squeeze might be developing in the volatile silver market. We attempt to identify who, or rather which class of futures trader,might be squeezed in this brief offering. The inspiration for this article is actually misinformation found elsewhere. We have seen and read commentary on the Web from various analysts and market watchers that have attributed, or rather misattributed, the very large increase in large commercial net short positioning (LCNS)

Continue reading "Swap Dealers ‘Goal Line Stand’ for COMEX Silver Futures in Jeopardy, Squeeze Very Possible Now " »

Tuesday, July 08, 2014

COT Turning Point?

HOUSTON -- Perhaps it is at turning points when the current COT positioning becomes counterintuitive. For example, notice in the graph below that even with the huge additions to net long positioning (+87,900 contracts in 3 COT reports as gold rose $67 from $1259 to $1326), Managed Money traders have only just now returned to what used to be a low level of net longs for gold in the 125,000-lot level. See the chart below for a “visual” on that notion. It will be interesting to see if gold reacts to the upside despite the large net long additions. Won’t it? COT data

Continue reading "COT Turning Point? " »

Monday, July 07, 2014

Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for July 3

HOUSTON – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released data Monday, July 7, for the disaggregated commitments of traders (DCOT) and Legacy “COT” reports for the week ending July 3, 2014. The data were delayed by the U.S. Independence Day holiday on Friday. Our recap of the net positioning for large reporting futures traders is below, compared to the prior week’s data. Source: CFTC for COT data, Cash Market for gold and silver prices. The positioning and price data is as of the close of trade in New York on Tuesday, July 1, 2014. In the DCOT table above a net short position

Continue reading "Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for July 3" »

Stockman -- Crony Capitalism and Central Planning are the Enemy, Not Free Markets

In this short, but excellent interview of David Stockman by the Mises Institute from September of 2013, courtesy of Lew Rockwell’s blog, we gain more insight into Stockman’s view that government favor-ship of the well connected, large corporate interests, politically well-connected and otherwise dialed-inentities (so called Crony Capitalism, which is not really capitalism at all, more like fascism…); and Stockman’s contention that the world’s central planners and central bankersare “the problem,” not free markets – a view most of our readership would surely and fully agree with. This may be a repeat post, as we remember reading this sometime back, but it is

Continue reading "Stockman -- Crony Capitalism and Central Planning are the Enemy, Not Free Markets " »

Friday, July 04, 2014

COMEX Heavy Commercial Gold Shorts Not Always a Sign of a Top

HOUSTON -- Very large net short positions held by traders the CFTC classes as “commercial” in COMEX futures for gold have, in the past, often marked at least an interim top. We have recently seen attention drawn to the commercial net short position by respected market watchers, such as James Turk of GoldMoney fame, John Hathaway, of Tocqueville Asset Management, among many others. The theory is: who better than the gold trade itself, the traders whose job it is to hedge their natural long position with futures, to know when they need to layer on heavy hedges in preparation for a gold price

Continue reading "COMEX Heavy Commercial Gold Shorts Not Always a Sign of a Top" »

Hathaway - Financial Leverage Now $100 Trillion, Nine ‘Compelling’ Gold Charts

John Hathaway, Senior Managing Director, Tocqueville Asset Management, has filed a compelling essay at KWN. Hathaway lays out the case for a turn-around for gold and reasons careful investors should view gold as a long-term asset. We deem his offering worthy of our readership. Hathaway begins: The precious metals complex, both mining shares and bullion, appears to be in the process of completing a major bottom extending back to mid-2013. The chart below depicts this action quite clearly in the form of what technical analysts refer to as a reverse or upside down head and shoulder pattern, a classic indication of a possible

Continue reading "Hathaway - Financial Leverage Now $100 Trillion, Nine ‘Compelling’ Gold Charts" »

Frank Homes - I’m Grateful to Live in America. Here’s Why.

Frank Holmes,CEO and Chief Investment Officer,U.S. Global Investors writes: An important principle of our investment process at U.S. Global Investors is a belief that government policies are a precursor to change. As a result, we closely monitor the fiscal, monetary and other impactful governmental policies of the world’s largest countries, both in terms of economic stature and population. We’re always listening for the proverbial shot heard around the world. As we approach America’s Independence Day, this belief rings especially true. In 1776 it was America’s reaction to oppressive government policy that led to the Declaration of Independence, unbinding the 13 colonies from England’s

Continue reading "Frank Homes - I’m Grateful to Live in America. Here’s Why." »

IMF Warns of Negative Spiral in France as Recession Looms Again

France has sunk into an economic malaise and could take years to climb back out... Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes for The Telegraph. He begins: France is on the cusp of a fresh recession as services contract sharply and the country braces for yet another round of austerity cuts, with record jobless levels likely to bedevil Francois Hollande’s presidency for years to come. Markit’s PMI services gauge for France fell for the third month to 48.2 in June, pointing to an outright fall in GDP following zero growth in the first quarter. The International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast this year from 1pc to

Continue reading "IMF Warns of Negative Spiral in France as Recession Looms Again" »

Thursday, July 03, 2014

Happy Independence Day

Have a safe and happy Independence Dayweekend. FYI COT data is delayed by the CFTC until Monday, July 7.

Continue reading "Happy Independence Day " »

Tuesday, July 01, 2014

Stockman - California Housing And The Bubble At Hand

David Stockman writes for his own blog, Contra Corner. He begins: Janet Yellen is an officious school marm. She constantlylectures us on Keynesian verities as if they were the equivalent of Newton’s Law or thePythagorean Theorem. Infact, theyconstitute self-serving dogma of modern vintagethatis marshaled to justify what isat bottom an economic absurdity. Namely, that through the primitive act of banging the securities “buy” key over and over and thereby massively expanding its balance sheet, the Fed can cause real wealth—-embodying the sweat of labor, the consumption of capital and the fruits of enterprise—-to magically expand beyond what thefree market wouldgenerate on itsown steam.

Continue reading "Stockman - California Housing And The Bubble At Hand" »

Monday, June 30, 2014

Turk – Possible Gold Short Squeeze Looms

James Turk, founder of GoldMoney.com commented to Eric King at KWN: “When we started talking a couple of weeks ago about a short squeeze in silver, Eric, the odds were stacked against us. But since then the probability of a short squeeze has increased substantially. And not just for silver. That $40 jump in gold a few days ago indicates that the shorts in gold are nervous too....” Turk also remarked: “Interestingly, the longs holding that paper sold by the shorts are also nervous. The longs do not know whether their counterparty really has the physical metal to fulfill the delivery commitment should

Continue reading "Turk – Possible Gold Short Squeeze Looms " »

Sunday, June 29, 2014

COMEX Managed Money Traders Cover One-Week Record Number of Gold Shorts

HOUSTON -- Traders the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) classes as Managed Money were so sure the downtrend for gold has ended that they collectively covered or offset with new long trades a record high number of their short bets in one commitment of traders (COT) reporting week. In the process Managed Money traders also reported a new one-week record increase in their net long positioning for gold futures. We conclude that Managed Money traders are positioning for higher gold prices in an aggressive way. Just below is the recent positioning data published by the CFTC for Managed Money traders in gold futures.

Continue reading "COMEX Managed Money Traders Cover One-Week Record Number of Gold Shorts " »

Saturday, June 28, 2014

COMEX Managed Money Traders Covering Silver Shorts Big Time

HOUSTON – On June 16 in an offering here at GGR we suggested that COMEX Managed Money traders had built up a record high number of short positions in silver futures (as high as a staggering 42,804 contracts as of June 3) as a kind of “insurance,” protecting their existing long contracts which have varied very little since the beginning of the year. We went on to say: “Now we can posit a theory that the high number of short positions in silver futures gives the Fund Guys the ability to profit from the down trend, yes, but it also gives them the

Continue reading "COMEX Managed Money Traders Covering Silver Shorts Big Time " »

If Gold Rises a Little, Gold Stocks Could Go Up a Lot – Steve Todoruk

Henry Bonner, Sprott Global Resource Investments, writes: Steve Todoruk, an Investment Executive at Sprott Global Resource Investments Ltd. since 2003, said recentlypositive signswere beginning to take shape for the bigger mining firms. Many of these big companies are now healthy enough to start acquiring assets, scooping up the low-hanging fruit in the sector – attractive assets or companies that are still cheap. Many of these smaller companies are already showing signs of share price strength. Steve tells how the metals and stock markets have behaved over the last six months:

Continue reading "If Gold Rises a Little, Gold Stocks Could Go Up a Lot – Steve Todoruk" »

Friday, June 27, 2014

Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for June 27

Update 1: Adds graphs and brief commentary. HOUSTON – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released data for the disaggregated commitments of traders (DCOT) and Legacy “COT” reports for the week ending June 27, 2014. Our recap of the net positioning for large reporting futures traders is below, compared to the prior week’s data. Source: CFTC for COT data, Cash Market for gold and silver prices. The positioning and price data is as of the close of trade in New York on Tuesday, June 24, 2014. In the DCOT table above a net short position shows as a negative figure in red. A

Continue reading "Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for June 27" »


Recent Comments



The Original
Vulture Speculator

Trading gold, silver and mining shares since 1980 with a focus on taking advantage of volatility extremes, Gene Arensberg analyses the markets through a basket of technical and fundamental indicators and shares his findings from time to time here at Got Gold Report. Mr. Arensberg has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones MarketWatch, USA Today and dozens of other news organizations.

"I've been a huge fan of Gene and his amazing work for years..."

Brien Lundin, CEO, Jefferson Financial, Host of the annual New Orleans Investment Conference and Publisher of Gold Newsletter


Contact Us